The digital or fourth digital revolution, which is constantly talked about in the media, is characterized mainly by two aspects: 1) it is moving at a speed unprecedented in the history of mankind. In fact, by 2020, more people in the world will have a cell phone than access to electricity or sanitation facilities. And 2) the barriers between the physical and the digital are disappearing, influencing even areas as diverse as biology, medicine or gastronomy.
In addition to the speed with which new technologies are generating changes in society, they are also reconstructing the world with their functions and possibilities. For example, in fields such as biotechnology, making DNA analysis available to consumers; neurotechnology, generating digital control interfaces through the mind; 3D printing, personalizing manufacturing; nanotechnology, producing organic circuits; sensors, bringing the Internet to things; artificial intelligence, copying human cognitive processes; robotics, systematizing physical efforts; electric batteries, making energy consumption and production cheaper; and drones, democratizing the use of the skies.
These digital technologies revolve around three concepts: Visibilize, Socialize y Measurethat is, they make the invisible visible, make it easy to share and enable its measurement. But, making visible the invisible, making it social and measurable is not only a bet on the future, Waze has used these concepts to generate a successful application, and position itself as a market leader with more than 65 million users and presence in 185 countries. This app developed by entrepreneurs from Israel was sold to Google for $1 billion in 2013 [1] and has changed the way people drive. By measuring traffic flow, using its users' cell phones as sensors; by creating a social network in which real-time information about road conditions is shared; and by adapting to the situation to show the optimal alternative route. The application even works in countries where directions are references such as "500 meters south of the old higuerón", very common in Central America.
The region and the fourth industrial revolution
And with respect to Central America, what can the countries do in the face of this technological change, how can they adapt to a new reality that is modifying the economic and social structures of the most developed countries, what elements do they have to reduce the negative consequences, and how quickly can they react to a trend that only promises to continue accelerating its impacts? The answers to these questions could be discouraging, according to the data available and the issues under discussion in the public agendas of these countries.
In a first analysis, the region has not yet solved 20th century problems, such as nutrition and basic medical care, water and sanitation, housing, or access to basic knowledge (See Figure 3). These basic challenges affect even the country with the most dynamic economy in the region, Panama, which faces a malnutrition rate approximately double that of countries such as Chile or Uruguay according to the Social Progress Index data; where it ranks 74th out of 128 countries for the nutrition and basic health care component. Or that Panama ranks 83rd in secondary education enrollment with only 75.5% of secondary school-age children attending classes[2].
FIGURE 3. Unsatisfied basic problems in Central America
These regional conditions clearly produce a situation of risk and lag behind countries that can benefit today from the benefits of exponential technologies; or that are already making changes in their educational models to generate the digital skills needed for the fourth industrial revolution. These skills are already identified, and are based on the assumption that in the next 20 years it will be necessary to add value in those processes in which artificial intelligence or robots cannot intervene[3]; and are mainly based on a lifelong learning process, on strengthening social skills, and on adding creativity through technological tools.
However, these qualities are still far from being developed in the young Central American population; if we look at the statistics of young people between 15 and 24 years of age, we find that in Guatemala, 5% of young people neither study nor work, and 37.7% are engaged in agriculture and 13% in manufacturing. In Honduras, 12% of young people neither study nor work and 34% are in the primary sector, mainly agriculture, and 16.5% in manufacturing. In Nicaragua, the youth unemployment rate is 8%, but 40% of young people are employed in the primary sector and 13.5% in manufacturing. In Panama, 15% of young people are unemployed, 22% work in agriculture and 6% in manufacturing. In El Salvador, 8% of young people are unemployed, 27% work in the primary sector and 17% in manufacturing. Meanwhile, in Costa Rica, youth unemployment is 21%, and only 14% and 10.7% of its young people work in agriculture and manufacturing, respectively[4]. In other words, the region is isolating almost 50% of its young people from exponential technological development, keeping them unemployed or in non-technological and low-productivity activities.
The future will not wait
In view of the conditions in which the region finds itself and the global risks, forecasts cannot be very optimistic, especially because the region's leaders have yet to update their speeches, their diagnoses and their policies. They continue to discuss 20th century problems as if we were still in the dynamics of the last century. But as we have seen briefly in this document, the disruption of the fourth industrial revolution is affecting all the world's economies at an accelerated pace; and when it is fully established in the next few years, it will have changed the face of most productive sectors, generating new winners and losers, and altering the standard of living of millions of people.
If today we want the region to benefit from the opportunity offered by technological change, then we must think about at least 3 basic points:
In the end, the dilemma is not a function of the adoption of technology or not; it is about the type of country we want to build. Therefore, the integration of Central American countries into the fourth industrial revolution must be a strategic process that guarantees benefits for citizens in an inclusive and sustainable manner. For as Prof. Schwab[5] says, the fourth industrial revolution can compromise and denigrate the fundamentals of humanity, namely work, community, family and identity; or it can elevate humanity to a new collective and moral consciousness based on a sense of shared destiny. The choice is ours, and the opportunity is now, that is why CLACDS puts this topic on the agenda for public discussion; to guide, facilitate and generate a dialogue that will help build a Central America of the digital era.
[1] Business Insider, 2013.
[2] Porter, 2017.
[3] UNDP, 2016.
[4] IDB, 2017.
[5] Benioff, op cit.
